An Intuitive Introduction to Probability

An Intuitive Introduction to Probability

Instructor: Karl Schmedders

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32 quizzes

Taught in English

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There are 5 modules in this course

This course will provide you with a basic, intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life.

The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution". You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!

In this module we will learn about probabilities and perform our first calculations using probability formulas. We want to get comfortable with the idea that probabilities describe the chance of uncertain events occurring.

What's included

7 videos1 reading7 quizzes

7 videosTotal 63 minutes

Welcome6 minutesPreview module
Introduction5 minutes
Definition and Rules12 minutes
A First Look at Statistical Independence10 minutes
Subjective Probabilities9 minutes
Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law11 minutes
Exercise7 minutes

1 readingTotal 120 minutes

Script: Part 1120 minutes

7 quizzesTotal 210 minutes

Introductory Quiz30 minutes
1.130 minutes
1.230 minutes
1.330 minutes
1.430 minutes
1.530 minutes
1.630 minutes

The arrival of new information may lead us to alter our probabilistic assessments of uncertain events. In this module, we will learn how the concept of "conditional" probabilities allows us to make these changes correctly. Script of the course can be found here: https://roshoesn.top/learn/introductiontoprobability/resources/qxi9W

What's included

6 videos1 reading6 quizzes

We will discuss some fascinating every-day applications of probability. In addition to entertaining examples, we will also review very serious applications from finance and law.

What's included

6 videos6 quizzes

In this module we move beyond probabilities and learn about important summary measures such as expected values, variances, and standard deviations. We also learn about the most popular discrete probability distribution, the binomial distribution.

What's included

8 videos1 reading8 quizzes

8 videosTotal 79 minutes

Discrete Random Variables11 minutesPreview module
Expected Value12 minutes
Measures of Dispersion8 minutes
Application: Financial Model5 minutes
Binomial Distribution17 minutes
Application: Airline Overbooking11 minutes
Exercise 16 minutes
Exercise 25 minutes

1 readingTotal 120 minutes

Script: Part 4120 minutes

8 quizzesTotal 240 minutes

4.130 minutes
4.230 minutes
4.330 minutes
4.430 minutes
4.530 minutes
4.630 minutes
4.730 minutes
4.830 minutes

We want to get comfortable with the normal distribution. We will discuss what the famous bell curve really represents. And we will learn how easy it is to calculate normal probabilities.

What's included

6 videos1 reading5 quizzes

6 videosTotal 57 minutes

Continuous Random Variables14 minutesPreview module
Normal Distribution9 minutes
Calculating Normal Probabilities9 minutes
Calculations with the Normal Distribution7 minutes
Application of the Normal Distribution8 minutes
Exercise7 minutes

1 readingTotal 120 minutes

Script: Part 5120 minutes

5 quizzesTotal 150 minutes

5.130 minutes
5.230 minutes
5.330 minutes
5.430 minutes
5.530 minutes

Instructor

Instructor ratings

4.9 (590 ratings)

Top Instructor

Karl Schmedders

University of Zurich

1 Course82,662 learners

Offered by

University of Zurich

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Reviewed on Jul 29, 2017

Taught from a very practical standpoint with no math derivations or excessive theory. The use of Microsoft Excel made it very easy to calculate probabilities. This course has numerous ral-world

Reviewed on Mar 23, 2023

It's a great course, loved the way Prof. Karl Schmedders explains things. However one area of improvement of this course is - the methods adopted in the exercises needed to be covered in the lectures.

Reviewed on Nov 3, 2017

This course is an absolute GEM. I am glad I took it before my CFA preparation. I would highly recommend this course . I thoroughly enjoyed all the real time applications given by the professor!!!

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